What is the Retail Sales Index?
The Retail Sales Index (RSI) is a key economic indicator that measures the total value or volume of goods and services sold by retailers over a specific period, typically on a monthly basis. It tracks changes in consumer spending patterns, providing insights into economic health, inflation trends, and overall demand. Unlike raw sales figures, the RSI is often expressed as an index relative to a base year (e.g., 2015 = 100), allowing for easy comparison of percentage changes over time.
How Is It Calculated?
Data Sources: Compiled from surveys of retail establishments, point-of-sale data, and administrative records (e.g., VAT returns in some countries). In the US, the Census Bureau surveys about 13,000 retailers representing over 90% of the economy.
Components: Includes sales from stores like general merchandise, clothing, food services, and online retailers. Excludes wholesale or manufacturing sales.
Adjustments: Seasonally adjusted to remove holiday or weather effects; core RSI often excludes volatile items like autos and gas.
Formula Basics: RSI = (Current Period Sales / Base Period Sales) × 100. Changes are reported as month-over-month (MoM) or year-over-year (YoY) percentages.
Different countries have their own versions:
- US: Monthly Retail Trade report (not strictly an "index" but used to derive one via FRED's RSXFS series).
- UK (ONS): Focuses on volume and value changes for short-term trends.
- Australia/Ireland: Emphasizes percentage changes in total retail turnover.
Why Does It Matters?
Economic Signal: Strong RSI growth indicates robust consumer confidence and potential GDP expansion; weakness can signal recessions.
Market Impact: Influences stock markets, interest rates, and Fed policy—e.g., a beat on expectations often boosts equities.
Limitations: Doesn't capture all spending (e.g., services) and can be volatile due to promotions or supply issues.
For the latest US data (as of November 2025), see the Census Bureau's report, which showed +0.6% MoM for August. If you mean a specific country's RSI or historical trends, let me know!
US Retail Sales Overview (as of November 14, 2025)
The US Retail Sales report, published by the US Census Bureau, is a key economic indicator measuring total receipts at retail establishments. It reflects consumer spending trends and is typically released mid-month for the prior month. Due to a recent government shutdown, the official advance estimate for October 2025 has been delayed, with alternative data from sources like the National Retail Federation (NRF) and card transaction monitors filling the gap. The last official data is for August 2025.
Latest Official Data (August 2025)
- Total Retail and Food Services Sales: $732.0 billion
- Month-over-month (MoM) change: +0.6% (from July 2025)
- Year-over-year (YoY) change: +5.0% (from August 2024)
- Core Retail Sales (excluding autos, gas, building materials): +0.5% MoM, +4.7% YoY
No specific "retail sales index" (e.g., a normalized index with a base year) is published in the standard report; data is reported in nominal dollar values, seasonally adjusted. For indexed views, refer to FRED's RSXFS series (seasonally adjusted retail trade sales in millions of dollars).
Alternative Data for October 2025 (NRF/CNBC Retail Monitor)
Based on credit/debit card transaction data, October showed continued consumer resilience heading into the holidays:
- Total Retail Sales: +0.6% MoM, +5.0% YoY
- Core Retail Sales: +0.7% MoM, +5.3% YoY
- Year-to-date (Jan–Oct 2025): Total sales +5.11% YoY; core +5.28% YoY
Top 10 Data Sources to Measure Retail Sales Index
The Retail Sales Index (RSI) is a critical economic indicator tracking changes in retail sales volume or value, often adjusted for seasonality and inflation. Below is a curated list of the top 10 reliable data sources, focusing on official statistical agencies for primary data and reputable aggregators for global comparisons. These are selected based on coverage, timeliness, and authority, with a mix of national and international providers. I've prioritized sources that provide indexed data (e.g., base year = 100) or raw figures suitable for index calculation.
These sources provide the foundational data for calculating or tracking RSI, often using surveys of retailers (e.g., 10,000+ establishments). For global benchmarking, aggregators like Trading Economics pull from official bodies.
Evolution of Consumer Behavior in the Gift Industry: 2015–2025
The gift industry, encompassing holiday, birthday, wedding, and experiential gifting, has seen profound shifts over the past decade, influenced by digital disruption, economic pressures, and cultural changes toward sustainability and personalization. Global gifting spending grew from approximately $200 billion in 2015 to over $300 billion by 2025, with the U.S. alone hitting $1 trillion in holiday sales for the first time in 2025 (up 4.3% YoY). Early years focused on e-commerce expansion; the pandemic accelerated experiences and digital options; and recent trends emphasize value amid "giftflation" (rising gift prices outpacing inflation). Consumers now prioritize thoughtfulness—65% bought personalized gifts in 2024, viewing them as 80% more meaningful—with social media driving 40% of discoveries by 2025.
Key Periods of Change
2015–2019 (Digital and Experiential Rise): E-gifting platforms like Etsy boomed (searches +200%), with 30% of millennials opting for experiences (e.g., classes, travel) over items. Social media influencers sparked "unboxing" trends.
2020–2022 (Pandemic Adaptation): Lockdowns boosted contactless gifting—gift cards surged 25% YoY, and charitable donations replaced 15% of physical gifts. Opt-out rates hit 11.5% in 2021 due to financial strain.
2023–2025 (Value and Sustainability Focus): Inflation led to "intentional gifting"—fewer but more meaningful items—with 42% planning more personalized buys. Average U.S. holiday spend reached $890 in 2025 (second-highest on record), but 74% seek deals or dupes.
Top 10 Trends in Gift Buying Behavior (2015–2025)
Based on surveys from NRF, McKinsey, and Deloitte, here's a decade-spanning overview of transformative trends, with key metrics:
These trends show a move from volume to value: Holiday budgets dropped 23% for Gen Z in 2025, favoring registries and experiences.
Generational Spotlight: Millennials and Gen Z Lead the Charge
Millennials (born 1981–1996) drove early personalization (70% adoption by 2020), blending nostalgia with tech. Gen Z (1997–2012), with $12T spending power by 2030, embodies frugality—cutting 33% on apparel gifts but splurging 20% more on eco-experiences. Both generations shun excess: 63% seek vintage/second-hand, and 59% demand emotional ROI, like handcrafted items reflecting values. Boomers, meanwhile, stick to tradition but increased digital gifting 50% post-pandemic.
Outlook for 2026+
With market growth at 3.5–10.4% CAGR through 2029, expect AI personalization (e.g., sentiment-based suggestions) and further experience dominance—projected 60% of gifts. Amid economic caution, brands should focus on affordable thoughtfulness: Hybrid models like subscription boxes (+135% searches) and sustainable dupes will thrive. For 2025 holidays, NRF forecasts $1–1.02T in sales, emphasizing deals and omnichannel ease.
Millennial Spending Patterns in 2025
Millennials (born 1981–1996, now aged 29–44) represent a powerhouse in consumer spending, wielding significant economic influence amid economic recovery and digital maturation. In the US, they account for 28.3% of total retail spending ($1.127 trillion annually), with average household retail expenditures of $31,256—6.16% above the national average. Globally, their patterns reflect a blend of caution from past recessions and optimism for personal growth, prioritizing flexibility, value, and well-being over excess. However, financial insecurity affects 46% of millennials, linking money to overall life satisfaction and prompting trade-offs like downgrading essentials to fund discretionary splurges. Compared to other generations, millennials spend more on retail than Baby Boomers (18.5% higher) but less than Gen X (17.1% lower), with total consumer expenditures 54.3% above Gen Z's.
Spending Power and Generational Comparisons
Millennials' spending is shaped by life stages like homeownership (52% of households) and family-building, but tempered by debt and inflation. Here's a snapshot of average annual US household expenditures:
Data reflects 2023–2025 trends, with millennials shopping 683 times/year ($33/trip) and favoring omnichannel (82% in-store, 85% online).
Top Spending Categories
Housing dominates, but growth areas like entertainment (+9.86% YoY) and education (+41.3% YoY) highlight aspirational shifts. Average monthly breakdowns for millennial households:
Online top buys: Clothing (44%), shoes (35%), food/beverages (29%). They spend 17.9% more than average on apparel but less on women's clothing (-21.5%).
7 Key Trends Shaping Millennial Spending
Drawing from 2025 surveys, millennials are digital-savvy value-seekers, with 44% shopping online weekly and 63% holding credit cards for flexibility. Here's a curated list of dominant patterns:
Experiences Over Possessions: 60% opt for travel/events vs. items; 53% favor vacations, with UK abroad trips +17% since 2023. Drives $2,190 avg. holiday spend (gifts 47%, travel 35%).
Online and Tech-Driven Shopping: 85% shopped online; 27% plan increases, favoring Instagram Shopping (+12% usage). 32% primarily online, blending with in-store for immediacy (e.g., 20% food delivery growth).
Sustainability with Pragmatism: 80% factor in eco-efforts, but personal stability trumps causes—sustainability priority down 26% since 2021; 16% more likely to choose cheaper over green in Europe.
Health & Wellness Investments: $115/month on beauty/fitness/mental health (+$20 vs. Gen Z); 56% more likely to shop at Whole Foods; 39% prefer organic/high-protein foods. Interest +7% since 2021.
Subscription and Rental Economy: Full embrace of recurring models for predictability; 1 in 5 use BNPL (highest users); rent vs. own appeals for flexibility amid debt.
Education and Financial Growth: 13% invest in learning; 21% own stocks, 12% crypto (+20% likelihood). Gold ownership +11% since 2021, signaling stability focus.
Value Redefinition Amid Caution: Trade-down on essentials (smaller packs) to splurge elsewhere; 47% prefer local brands; decoupled sentiment—spend despite low confidence, budgeting tightly (45%).
Outlook for 2026
With spending projected to grow 3–5% amid stabilizing inflation, millennials will lean into AI for personalization (15% use for gifts) and omnichannel perks like gamified loyalty. Brands succeeding will offer flexible payments, ethical options, and "affordable affluence" to capture their $12T global power by 2030. For tailored advice, specify a category or region!
Exclusive Information 👍
New concept of gifing
Top 10 Singapore Gifting Brands for 2025
Singapore's gifting scene thrives on local creativity, sustainability, and personalization, with homegrown brands leading the charge for thoughtful presents like holiday hampers, eco-gifts, and artisanal keepsakes. Drawing from curated lists of local favorites, here's a selection of the top 10 Singapore-based brands ideal for gifting in 2025—focusing on unique, festive offerings for Christmas, corporate events, or personal milestones. These emphasize handmade, eco-conscious items that resonate with Singaporeans' love for quality and locality.
These brands highlight Singapore's vibrant local scene, with many offering personalization for corporate or holiday needs. For broader options, consider Fossa Chocolate for local-flavored sets (e.g., Teh Tarik bars) or Toujours Flowers for preserved bouquets. Shop via their sites or pop-ups at malls like ION Orchard for 2025 festivities. If you need specifics for occasions like weddings or newborns, let me know!
Conclusion
The NRF forecasts holiday sales (Nov–Dec 2025) to reach $1.0–$1.02 trillion, up 3.7–4.2% from 2024, driven by online and non-store channels (expected +8–9% to $312–$315 billion). Official October data is expected post-shutdown, potentially on December 17 per the Census schedule. For real-time updates, check the Census Bureau or Trading Economics.
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